Cautionary Tale Research Articles

Holocene utopias and dystopias: Views of the Holocene in the Anthropocene and their impact on defining the Anthropocene

In delineating the Anthropocene, the Holocene is being redefined as the formative epoch of human development leading to the Anthropocene. This has led to a diversity of views of the Holocene and Holocene humanity in the Anthropocene, the extremes of which may be described as “Holocene utopianism” and “Holocene dystopianism.” The former views the Holocene as a solution to the predicament of the Anthropocene, as an idealized past of human activities and stable climate that must be aspired to. The latter perceives the Holocene and Holocene humanity as the root cause of the ills of the Anthropocene that must be avoided in the future. These views reflect a gross simplification of human activities and the environment of the Holocene. Human activity in the Holocene is characterized by diverse human behaviors that can be perceived as both destructive and sustaining to the earth’s ecological systems, and in many cases, emerged as a response to fluctuations in the Holocene climate. The Holocene does not provide an escape from the Anthropocene, as a solution or as a cautionary tale. Nonetheless, future human endeavors must necessarily draw from the diversity of human activities and systems of organization observed in the Holocene, but do so carefully.

A cautionary tale from the Adriatic Palaeolithic: reassessing the stratigraphic reliability of Šandalja II cave (Istria, Croatia)

Šandalja II has been a reference site for numerous decades for the definition and study of the Eastern Adriatic Upper Palaeolithic and corresponding techno-complexes. This is due both to its extensive material record, and the purported presence of some otherwise elusive techno-complexes in the area, such as the Aurignacian and the Early Epigravettian. In this paper, we present two new series of C14-AMS dates (from layers H, E, C/d and A/d) to assess the validity of its archaeological sequence, together with previously obtained radiocarbon dates, both AMS and conventional. The results show, unambiguously, the lack of reliability of the stratigraphy defined for the site during the excavation. A simple chronometric deconstruction reveals, at the very least, that the assemblages from Šandalja II can no longer be considered and used as an example of the diachronic evolution within the Aurignacian and Epigravettian of the Eastern Adriatic, thus calling for a further re-evaluation of features defined for the Adriatic Upper Palaeolithic on the basis on the assemblages from Šandalja II. Hence Šandalja II joins an increasing list of so-called reference sites which must not be considered as “referential” anymore.

Pompe and Circumstance: A Cautionary Tale of Anchoring Bias and Delayed Diagnosis of Late-onset Pompe Disease in a Patient with a History of Pelvic Radiation (P11-11.006)

Pompe and Circumstance: A Cautionary Tale of Anchoring Bias and Delayed Diagnosis of Late-onset Pompe Disease in a Patient with a History of Pelvic Radiation (P11-11.006)

Population structure and ongoing microevolution of the emerging multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium ST213

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium ST213 is an emergent multidrug-resistant sequence type associated with the food chain, and gastrointestinal and invasive infections in North America. Here, we applied genomic and phenotypic analyses to illustrate the diversity and evolution of sequence type ST213. The population structure and evolutionary history of ST213 strains, particularly the North American isolates (NA-ST213) distinguish them from other S. Typhimurium sequence types, including European ST213 strains. NA-ST213 isolates were distributed in four co-circulating lineages with distinct multidrug resistance profiles and unique phage and CRISPR spacers patterns that could have shaped their local microevolution. Compared to the SL1344 reference strain, NA-ST213 demonstrated reduced adherence and internalization in cultured eukaryotic cell lines but exhibited more efficient replication and intracellular survival. This study underscores the relevance of studying an emergent S. Typhimurium sequence type and the events leading to its diversification beyond the well-characterized reference strains and worldwide predominant sequence types. However, it must also serve as a cautionary tale of the potential health risk the NA-ST213 may represent; particularly when there is a close relationship with pandemic sequence types such as the monophasic ST34.

Revisiting B.B. Mdledle’s isiXhosa translation of <i>Macbeth</i> (1959): Prophecy, tragedy and history

The isiXhosa translator of Shakespeare’s Macbeth, B.B. Mdledle, introduces the play as intlekele (a tragedy), and goes on to discuss characteristics of the genre; he cites Fate and Fortune as two forces that are vital ingredients of tragedy. The role of the witches’ equivocal prophecies is key here. In Mdledle’s Transkei (Eastern Cape), the issue of prophesying was taken very seriously – not least because of the prophets Makhanda, alias Nxele, and Nongqawuse, who plunged the region into untold disaster in the nineteenth century. This article also considers Mdledle’s UMacbeth (1959) as a form of intsomi (fable or cautionary tale), both for schoolchildren and for older readers. Furthermore, it relates the supernatural elements in Macbeth to Mdledle’s views as a Christian and to African cultural paradigms.

Photoelectrochemical Proton-Coupled Electron Transfer of TiO2 Thin Films on Silicon.

TiO2 thin films are often used as protective layers on semiconductors for applications in photovoltaics, molecule-semiconductor hybrid photoelectrodes, and more. Experiments reported here show that TiO2 thin films on silicon are electrochemically and photoelectrochemically reduced in buffered acetonitrile at potentials relevant to photoelectrocatalysis of CO2 reduction, N2 reduction, and H2 evolution. On both n-type Si and irradiated p-type Si, TiO2 reduction is proton-coupled with a 1e-:1H+ stoichiometry, as demonstrated by the Nernstian dependence of the Ti4+/3+ E1/2 on the buffer pKa. Experiments were conducted with and without illumination, and a photovoltage of ∼0.6 V was observed across 20 orders of magnitude in proton activity. The 4 nm films are almost stoichiometrically reduced under mild conditions. The reduced films catalytically transfer protons and electrons to hydrogen atom acceptors, based on cyclic voltammogram, bulk electrolysis, and other mechanistic evidence. TiO2/Si thus has the potential to photoelectrochemically generate high-energy H atom carriers. Characterization of the TiO2 films after reduction reveals restructuring with the formation of islands, rendering TiO2 films as a potentially poor choice as protecting films or catalyst supports under reducing and protic conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates that atomic layer deposition TiO2 films on silicon photoelectrodes undergo both chemical and morphological changes upon application of potentials only modestly negative of RHE in these media. While the results should serve as a cautionary tale for researchers aiming to immobilize molecular monolayers on "protective" metal oxides, the robust proton-coupled electron transfer reactivity of the films introduces opportunities for the photoelectrochemical generation of reactive charge-carrying mediators.

What Went Wrong In Hungary

Abstract: Why did Hungarian democracy have a harder time developing and rooting itself than democracy in other countries? The answer lies in the overlapping institutions and incentives that create democratic resilience. Hungary's political elites never finished their constitutional transition from communism to democracy by agreeing on a new democratic constitution. The 1998 elections polarized Hungarian politics around competing conceptions of democracy in ways that made it hard to reach consensus on a shared constitutional arrangement. Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party rose to power in the late 1990s by offering a strong state that would protect Hungarian society from the threat of social liberalism and foreclose a potential return of communism. Orbán returned to power in 2010, on the heels of the global financial crisis, and began centralizing and entrenching power by deft manipulation of democratic institutions. The case of Hungary tells us what to look for in anticipating democratic failure and serves as a cautionary tale for the EU.

Diagnosing the causes of AMOC slowdown in a coupled model: a cautionary tale

Abstract. It is now established that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is likely to cause a weakening, or perhaps a collapse, of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To investigate the mechanisms of this response in CMIP5 models, Levang and Schmitt (2020) have estimated the geostrophic streamfunction in these models offline and have decomposed the simulated changes into a contribution caused by the variations in temperature and salinity. They concluded that under a warming scenario, and for most models, the weakening of the AMOC is fundamentally driven by temperature anomalies, while freshwater forcing actually acts to stabilise it. However, given that both 3-D fields of ocean temperature and salinity are expected to respond to a forcing at the ocean surface, it is unclear to what extent the diagnostic is informative about the nature of the forcing. To clarify this question, we used the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC), cGENIE, which is equipped with the C-GOLDSTEIN friction-geostrophic model. First, we reproduced the experiments simulating the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) warming scenario and observed that cGENIE behaves similarly to the majority of the CMIP5 models considered by Levang and Schmitt (2020), with the response dominated by the changes in the thermal structure of the ocean. Next, we considered hysteresis experiments associated with (1) water hosing and (2) CO2 increase and decrease. In all experiments, initial changes in the ocean streamfunction appear to be primarily caused by the changes in the temperature distribution, with variations in the 3-D distribution of salinity only partly compensating for the temperature contribution. These experiments also reveal limited sensitivity to changes in the ocean's salinity inventory. That the diagnostics behave similarly in CO2 and freshwater forcing scenarios suggests that the output of the diagnostic proposed in Levang and Schmitt (2020) is mainly determined by the internal structure of the ocean circulation rather than by the forcing applied to it. Our results illustrate the difficulty of inferring any information about the applied forcing from the thermal wind diagnostic and raise questions about the feasibility of designing a diagnostic or experiment that could identify which aspect of the forcing (thermal or haline) is driving the weakening of the AMOC.

The Insignificance Principle between Germany and Brazil: a Cautionary Tale on Legal Imports

The Insignificance Principle between Germany and Brazil: a Cautionary Tale on Legal Imports

Genomics of a novel ecological phase shift: the case of a ‘weedy’ Montipora coral in Ulithi, Micronesia

AbstractLocal and global ecological stressors are leading to increased documentation of phase shifts in coral reefs from healthy stony corals to macrophytes. In more rare cases, phase shifts result in sponge, zoantharian or other dominant species. In Ulithi Atoll, Federated States of Micronesia, we have documented an unusual phase shift from reefs with a diverse stony coral assemblage to reefs dominated by a single species of stony coral: Montipora sp.—a coral-to-coral phase shift. This monospecific type of reef lowers fish diversity and biomass, impacting both ecological integrity, and livelihoods of reef-dependent human communities. In this study, we used a genomic approach to characterize such a reef. We assembled a de-novo reference genome and used RAD seq data with thousands of SNPs to determine if different reefs result from sexual or asexual reproduction, if weedy Montipora fragments are transported between islands by human activities, and if there is evidence of natural selection on specific genotypes, thus favoring spreading success. We found that sexual reproduction is predominant in the focal species, that there is no evidence of human-mediated spread, and that some genomic regions might be under selection. While such results eliminate a number of spreading hypotheses, more precise dispersal maps will be important to determine the tempo and mode of ‘invasion’ of Montipora in Ulithi Atoll. This study shows that selection and adaptation may be contributing to the success of a stony coral (e.g., Phase shift). While a stony coral may be successful in a disturbed environment, it does not necessarily provide the type of habitat that is conducive to high fish biomass and coral diversity. These results serve as a cautionary tale for restoration efforts that focus on single species coral resilience rather than ecosystem function.

That’s Gonna Leave a Mark: Positionality and Secondary Trauma in Researching Mass Killing and Genocide

In this article, I describe two fieldwork experiences dealing with traumatic subject matter: a three-month trip to the Russian Federation, researching the crimes of Stalin against the Soviet population, and a two-week odyssey across Poland, researching memorialization of the Holocaust as it occurred there. I had a much more difficult time on the Polish trip. These trips took place at different times, and my positionality had changed dramatically between the two experiences. The other relevant factor in each case was the nature of the material itself and the extent to which I was exposed to it. The Stalinist Terror is much more submerged in Russian society, for example, and it was often challenging to find evidence that it had occurred, as this involved travel to often far-flung Gulag and mass execution sites. In the Polish case, however, the Holocaust narrative and evidence of its occurrence was front and center in my experiences there, to the extent that the ubiquity of sites where terrible events occurred became overwhelming. The interaction of my positionality and the extent to which I was exposed to different types of traumatic experience, led to widely differing emotional tolls on my psyche in each case. I hope an analysis of this interaction, and the differing effects it produced provides information about planning and executing research on traumatic subjects that is valuable to others preparing to undertake it. (Or perhaps it will provide a cautionary tale about what to avoid). This article adds to the literature on personal negative outcomes experienced by those researching traumatic subject matter, particularly in the social sciences.

George Takei’s Allegiance: WWII Japanese American incarceration as a cautionary tale

ABSTRACT The musical Allegiance was inspired by the childhood of actor-activist George Takei, a Japanese American whose family was incarcerated by the United States government in ‘war relocation camps’ during World War II. Performed in both New York and London, the play is a rare popular depiction of Japanese detention – a chapter of American history that is simultaneously present and hidden in U.S. public imagination. The musical underscores the realities of racial discrimination that rendered Japanese Americans vulnerable to rights abuses and asks whether a citizen must prove one’s loyalty. Thinking through the ‘absent presence’ of Japanese American incarceration by viewing performances such as Allegiance is a vital step for acknowledging the precariousness of American citizenship and for preventing human rights abuses in the future. Today, this play serves as a cautionary tale for the United States as anti-Asian hatred spikes and citizenship stripping among naturalized American citizens increases.

Human capital and migration: A cautionary tale

We analyze the impact that the option of migration might have on human capital accumulation. We show that, when the return to education for migrants is lower in the destination than in the origin, the overall incentive to accumulate human capital is reduced as restrictions on migration are relaxed. We use panel data from the Chinese Household Income Project to document that the return to education for rural individuals is lower in urban areas than in rural areas. We then use a difference-in-differences design to show that the 1983 reform that eliminated the strong restriction that existed for rural–urban migration resulted in a reduction of 0.4 years of schooling for rural people in China. Guided by these results, we estimate a life-cycle dynamic discrete choice model of education decisions and circular rural–urban migration in which individuals differ in observable characteristics and unobservable cognitive and non-cognitive skills. We validate the model by showing it is able to replicate the impact estimates from the difference-in-differences specification. Our simulations show that, while it would take a small subsidy (conditional on staying in school) to undo about 40% of the negative effects of the 1983 policy on rural education, the annual subsidy would need to be half of annual earnings to undo the effects entirely.

Organizational and Economic Obstacles to Automation: A Cautionary Tale from AT&T in the Twentieth Century

AT&T was the largest U.S. firm for most of the 20th century. Telephone operators once comprised more than 50% of its workforce, but in the late 1910s, it initiated a decades-long process of automating telephone operation with mechanical call switching—a technology invented in the 1880s. We study what drove AT&T to do so and why it took nearly a century. Interdependencies between call switching and nearly every other activity in AT&T’s business presented obstacles to change: Telephone operators were the fulcrum of a complex production system that had developed around them, and automation only began after the firm and new technology were adapted to work together. Even then, automatic switching was only profitable in larger markets—hence, diffusion expanded when the technology improved or service areas grew. The example suggests even narrowly defined tasks can be difficult to automate if they interact with many others. This paper was accepted by Joshua Gans, business strategy. Funding: The authors thank the Duke University Fuqua School of Business and Harvard Business School Division of Research and Faculty Development for financial support. Supplemental Material: The online appendices and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01760 .

Small bowel obstruction secondary to barbed sutures in bariatric surgery: a cautionary tale.

Laparoscopic bariatric surgery relies on technically challenging intracorporeal suturing for critical parts of the operation. Barbed sutures have been developed to provide an alternative to suturing for certain manoeuvres within a procedure. Barbed sutures theoretically negate the need for knot tying and allow for continuous application of tension; however the barbs can unintentionally adhere to surrounding tissues. We describe a case series of three patients who developed V-Loc™ (barbed) suture related small bowel obstruction (SBO) to promote awareness of this unusual but preventable complication. Medical records of patients diagnosed with V-Loc™ related SBO between 2018 and 2021 at a tertiary centre were reviewed. Data regarding presentation, diagnosis, management and outcomes were obtained. Three patients were identified where V-Loc™ sutures were aetiologically related to early post-surgical small bowel obstruction secondary to small bowel adherence to barbed suture tail or adhesions between barbed suture tail and unintended viscera. In these cases, non-absorbable V-Loc™ sutures were used to close the small bowel mesenteric defect at Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. All patients required adhesiolysis at re-look laparoscopy prior to resolution. All patients were discharged home well after relook laparoscopy. Overly long or exposed V-Loc™ suture tails can result in SBO following laparoscopic bariatric surgery. Cutting the suture tail as close as practical to the final throw of the suture and/or covering exposed suture ends may prevent this complication.

The contribution of Teacher education to universities: a case study for international teacher educators

ABSTRACT This paper reports on the initial stage of a research project which aims to develop deeper understanding of the contribution teacher education, as a sub-discipline within Education, makes to Higher Education in England. The study is located in the intersection between the domains of teacher education and higher education scholarship, which in England represents a contested and ambiguous professional space. Tensions between competing accountability measures, pulling away from university-based to exclusively school-based teacher education, are exacerbated by proposed policy changes arising from the government's recent market review. Findings drawn from analysis of qualitative data from a national survey are discussed in the context of Elizabeth Povinelli's critique of late liberalism and previous scholarship on the nature of teacher educators’ work. Evidence from the study demonstrates numerous benefits to higher education of hosting teacher education departments, including contributions to standard metrics, regional development and knowledge exchange within a strategic social justice agenda. However, teacher educators themselves may find articulating these benefits difficult, because of marginalisation from the dominant ways of achieving and accounting for excellence in the modern university. These findings offer a cautionary tale to international colleagues whose governments may be embarking on equivalent paths of teacher education reform.

Phase I Study of GS-3583, a FLT3 Agonist Fc Fusion Protein, in Patients with Advanced Solid Tumors.

GS-3583, a FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) agonist Fc fusion protein, expanded conventional dendritic cells (cDCs) in the periphery of healthy volunteers, suggesting potential for GS-3583 to increase cDCs in the tumor microenvironment and promote T cell-mediated antitumor activity in cancer patients. This phase Ib open-label study assessed GS-3583 in adults with advanced solid tumors. Multiple escalating doses of GS-3583 (standard 3+3 design) were administered intravenously on days 1 and 15 of cycle 1 and day 1 of each subsequent 28-day cycle for up to 52 weeks. Dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) was evaluated during the first 28 days of GS-3583 at each dose level. Thirteen participants enrolled in 4 dose-escalation cohorts, after which the study was terminated following safety review. Median (range) age was 71 (44-79), and 7 (54%) participants were male. There were no DLTs. Seven participants had grade ≥3 AEs; 2 participants had grade 5 AEs, including a second primary malignancy (acute myeloid leukemia) considered treatment-related. Dose-dependent increase in GS-3583 serum exposure was observed in the dose range of 2-20 mg with GS-3583 accumulation at higher dose levels. Expansions of cDCs occurred at all 4 doses with a dose-dependent trend in the durability of the cDC expansion. GS-3583 was relatively well tolerated and induced dose-dependent expansion of cDCs in the periphery of patients with advanced solid tumors. However, development of a second primary malignancy provides a cautionary tale for the FLT3 agonist mechanism.

A cautionary tale about the pole of polar coordinates

A cautionary tale about the pole of polar coordinates

Effect of statin use for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease among older adults: a cautionary tale concerning target trials emulation

ObjectivesEvidence concerning the effect of statins in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among older adults is lacking. Using Quebec population-wide administrative data, we emulated a hypothetical randomized trial including older adults >65 years on April 1, 2013, with no CVD history and no statin use in the previous year. Study Design and SettingWe included individuals who initiated statins and classified them as exposed if they were using statin at least 3 months after initiation and nonexposed otherwise. We followed them until March 31, 2018. The primary outcome was the composite endpoint of coronary events (myocardial infarction, coronary bypass, and percutaneous coronary intervention), stroke, and all-cause mortality. The intention-to-treat (ITT) effect was estimated with adjusted Cox models and per-protocol effect with inverse probability of censoring weighting. ResultsA total of 65,096 individuals were included (mean age = 71.0 ± 5.5, female = 55.0%) and 93.7% were exposed. Whereas we observed a reduction in the composite outcome (ITT–hazard ratio (HR) = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.68–0.83) and mortality (ITT-HR = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.61–0.77) among exposed, coronary events increased (ITT-HR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09–1.94). All multibias E-values were low indicating that the results were not robust to unmeasured confounding, selection, and misclassification biases simultaneously. ConclusionWe cannot conclude on the effectiveness of statins in primary prevention of CVD among older adults. We caution that an in-depth reflection on sources of biases and careful interpretation of results are always required in observational studies.

Physical Exercise After Solid Organ Transplantation: A Cautionary Tale.

An increasing body of randomized controlled trials suggests the safety of engaging in moderate to vigorous intensity exercise training following solid organ transplantation. Fueled by emerging sport events designed for transplant recipients and the ever-growing body of research highlighting the diverse health benefits of physical activity, transplant recipients are now increasingly participating in strenuous and occasionally competitive physical endeavors that largely surpass those evaluated in controlled research settings. This viewpoint article adopts a cautionary stance to counterbalance the prevalent one-sided optimistic perspective regarding posttransplant physical activity. While discussing methodological limitations, we explore plausible adverse impacts on the cardiovascular, immunological, and musculoskeletal systems. We also examine the physiological consequences of exercising in the heat, at high altitude, and in areas with high air pollution. Risks associated with employing performance-enhancing strategies and the conceivable psychological implications regarding physical activity as a tribute to the 'gift of life' are discussed. With a deliberate focus on the potential adverse outcomes of strenuous posttransplant physical activity, this viewpoint aims to restore a balanced dialogue on our comprehension of both beneficial and potentially detrimental outcomes of physical activity that ultimately underscores the imperative of well-informed decision-making and tailored exercise regimens in the realm of posttransplant care.